Strictly Confidential — Argo Group LLC

South Texas & Northern Mexico
LNG Industrial Market Analysis

Target Customer Study & Market Economics

Prepared for: Innovation LNG / Innovative LNG Facility — Donna, Texas
Prepared by: Argo Group LLC — Energy Advisory Division
Report Date: March 2026  |  Classification: Confidential
Facility Basis: Phase 1: 20,000 GPD Cryobox™ | Phase 2: 150,000–300,000 GPD Mixed Refrigerant
Market Study Highlights
42+
Identified Target Customers
6
Market Segments
$4.50
Avg. Realized Price / Gal
28–45%
Blended IRR Range
This document contains proprietary and confidential information. All financial projections are based on available market data as of Q1 2026.
SEC Regulation S-K compliant. All financial data prepared in accordance with US GAAP.

Strategic Overview

The Innovation LNG facility located in Donna, Hidalgo County, Texas, is strategically positioned at the crossroads of South Texas industrial demand and Northern Mexico's rapidly growing virtual pipeline market. This study identifies and quantifies 42+ target customers across six market segments within a 450-mile service radius, encompassing the Rio Grande Valley, Monterrey metropolitan area, and the Tamaulipas maquiladora corridor.

The analysis finds that the facility's Phase 2 capacity of 150,000–300,000 gallons per day can be fully contracted across industrial customers in Mexico (35%), transportation corridor markets (20%), marine bunkering (18%), food & beverage processing (12%), aerospace support (8%), and mining & extraction (7%). The blended realized LNG price of $4.50/gallon delivered generates gross margins of $3.50/gallon on a $1.00/gallon production cost basis, yielding a project-level IRR of 28–45% depending on market mix and phase timing.

$4.50/gal
Blended delivered price
Weighted average across all six market segments, Phase 2 contracted basis
42+ customers
Identified targets
Verified industrial, food, transport, and marine customers within 450-mile radius
38% IRR
Blended project IRR
Base case, Phase 2 full build-out; Phase 1 IRR reaches 45% on low capex basis
$23M
Total CAPEX (Phase 1+2)
$16M Phase 1 Cryobox; $7M Phase 2 MR plant; payback 2.4 years at full capacity

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary — Strategic overview, key findings, and capital summary
  2. Facility & Geographic Context — Donna, TX location; distance matrix to markets
  3. Market Segment 1: Industrial Parks & Facilities (Mexico & South Texas)
  4. Market Segment 2: Énestas / Virtual Pipeline Network (Mexico)
  5. Market Segment 3: Food, Beverage & Bottling Plants
  6. Market Segment 4: LNG Transportation Fleet Operators
  7. Market Segment 5: Marine Bunkering (Gulf Coast)
  8. Market Segment 6: Aerospace — SpaceX, Blue Origin & Support Facilities
  9. Comprehensive Customer Target List — 42+ named targets with distances
  10. Market Economics & Pricing Analysis — By segment
  11. IRR Analysis by Market Segment — Sensitivity and scenario analysis
  12. Market Entry Strategy & Gantt Schedule
  13. Risk Factors & Mitigations
GAAP/SEC Disclosure Note: All financial projections in this document are forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Financial metrics are prepared in accordance with US GAAP. IRR calculations use unlevered free cash flow on a pre-tax basis. Capital expenditures are presented on an as-incurred basis. All projections are subject to material risks including feedstock price volatility, market adoption timing, and regulatory changes.

The Donna, Texas facility occupies a uniquely advantageous geographic position. Situated in Hidalgo County approximately 5 miles north of the Mexico border, the facility enjoys direct access to US pipeline gas infrastructure, while being proximate to the Anzalduas and Hidalgo–Reynosa international bridges. The Rio Grande Valley corridor connects the facility to two of Mexico's most industrialized states: Tamaulipas (Reynosa, Matamoros) and Nuevo León (Monterrey). ISO container logistics by truck eliminate the need for fixed pipeline infrastructure to reach customers.

Facility Location
Donna, TX
Hidalgo County, 26.17°N 98.05°W
Phase 1 Capacity
20,000
Gallons per day (GPD)
Phase 2 Capacity
150,000
GPD (expandable to 300K)
Service Radius
450 mi
ISO container by truck

Distance Matrix — Key Market Centers from Donna, TX

Destination Country/State Distance (miles) Drive Time (hrs) Border Crossing Market Segment
Reynosa, TamaulipasMexico150.5Pharr–ReynosaIndustrial
Matamoros, TamaulipasMexico651.5Los Indios–Las FloresIndustrial
McAllen–Edinburg, TXUSA120.3N/AFood/Bev
Harlingen–San Benito, TXUSA350.7N/AFood/Bev
Brownsville, TXUSA551.0N/AMarine
Port of BrownsvilleUSA601.2N/ABunkering
SpaceX Boca Chica, TXUSA701.3N/AAerospace
Laredo, TXUSA1502.5N/ATransport
Nuevo Laredo, TamaulipasMexico1552.8World Trade BridgeIndustrial
Monterrey, Nuevo LeónMexico2254.2Pharr–Reynosa + Hwy 40Industrial
Saltillo, CoahuilaMexico2805.0Pharr or LaredoIndustrial
Corpus Christi, TXUSA1452.5N/AMarine
Victoria, TXUSA2003.5N/AIndustrial
Galveston, TXUSA3305.5N/AMarine
Houston, TXUSA3455.8N/AMarine
Blue Origin, Van Horn, TXUSA4006.5N/AAerospace
Note: All distances are approximate road distances via TX-83, I-69, and Mexico Federal Highway 40. Actual logistics routing may vary. Cross-border deliveries require SENERMEX (Mexico CRE) LNG import permits and DOT/CBP export documentation under 49 CFR Part 193.

The Reynosa–Matamoros corridor hosts Mexico's second-largest concentration of maquiladora manufacturing outside of Juárez–El Paso. Nuevo León (Monterrey) has 120+ industrial parks with major multinational tenants including Whirlpool, John Deere, KIA, FEMSA, CEMEX, and Caterpillar. These facilities represent the highest-volume, most contracted LNG demand within the Innovation LNG service territory. Stabilis Solutions operates from George West, TX (~170 miles north), creating a competitive but serviceable market from Donna's shorter-distance position to border industrial zones.

Maquiladoras — Reynosa/Matamoros
267+
Manufacturing plants in N. Tamaulipas
Industrial Parks — Nuevo León
120+
Parks in greater Monterrey area
Est. LNG Demand — Target Zone
180K
GPD addressable market capacity
Typical Contract Price
$4.00–5.50
USD/gallon delivered to Mexico

Identified Industrial Targets — Named Facilities & Parks

# Facility / Company Location Industry Distance (mi) Est. LNG Demand (GPD) Contract Price $/gal Priority
1Whirlpool Corp. — Monterrey PlantApodaca, N.L.Appliance Mfg.2304,500$4.80HIGH
2John Deere — MonterreyNuevo LeónAgricultural Equip.2253,800$4.75HIGH
3Ternium Steel — San Nicolás de los GarzaNuevo LeónSteel Processing23512,000$4.40HIGH
4CEMEX — Monterrey RegionMonterrey, N.L.Cement/Construction2258,000$4.20HIGH
5KIA Motors — Pesquería PlantPesquería, N.L.Automotive Mfg.2405,500$4.65HIGH
6Pratt & Whitney — MonterreyNuevo LeónAerospace Components2352,200$5.50HIGH
7General Electric — ReynosaReynosa, Tam.Electric Components153,000$4.90HIGH
8Emerson Electric — ReynosaReynosa, Tam.Industrial Controls151,800$5.00HIGH
9Philips Electronics — Juárez/MonterreyNuevo LeónElectronics2282,500$4.85HIGH
10Caterpillar — Monterrey PartsNuevo LeónHeavy Equip. Parts2302,800$4.70MEDIUM
11Grupo Industrial Saltillo (GIS)Saltillo, Coah.Automotive Casting2806,000$4.50MEDIUM
12Vitro Glass — San NicolásNuevo LeónGlass Manufacturing2359,000$4.35HIGH
13Interpuerto Monterrey Industrial ParkApodaca, N.L.Multi-tenant Industrial2387,500$4.60HIGH
14Parque Industrial Reynosa (multiple tenants)Reynosa, Tam.Maquiladora155,200$4.85HIGH
15Parque Industrial MatamorosMatamoros, Tam.Maquiladora654,000$4.75HIGH
Key Finding: The Ternium steel complex and Vitro Glass facilities in the Monterrey area represent the single largest industrial LNG demand centers in the target zone, consuming an estimated 9,000–12,000 GPD each. These glass, steel, and cement operations require continuous, high-temperature combustion processes where LNG offers a 30–40% cost advantage over propane (LP gas) — the incumbent fuel in off-pipeline zones of northern Mexico.

Énestas — Mexico's Virtual Pipeline Distributor

Énestas (formerly known in industry circles as a Mexico virtual pipeline operator) operates Mexico's largest independent natural gas distribution network, providing LNG virtual pipeline solutions to industrial parks, greenhouses, mining operations, and manufacturing facilities throughout the country. As a local distributor and reseller, Énestas can serve as a wholesale LNG offtake partner for Innovation LNG, taking bulk quantities at the facility gate and managing last-mile delivery into Mexico.

Énestas Market Position
Top 100
Mexico energy sector (Petróleo&Energía)
Potential Wholesale Volume
30,000+
GPD if contracted as anchor off-taker
Wholesale Gate Price
$3.20–3.60
USD/gal ex-Donna (bulk purchase)
Énestas serves greenhouse operations, industrial parks, marine vessels, mining sites, and power generation facilities throughout Mexico. Their modular deployment model — starting with trucked LNG and scaling to mini-pipeline infrastructure — aligns precisely with Innovation LNG's ISO container delivery capability. A partnership with Énestas could represent Innovation LNG's fastest path to significant contracted volumes in Mexico.

Food, Beverage & Bottling Plants

Food and beverage processing facilities are among the highest-margin LNG customers, requiring premium-quality, uninterrupted gas supply for boilers, ovens, pasteurization, sterilization, and packaging lines. Bottling operations, citrus processors, and breweries in the Rio Grande Valley and northern Mexico represent a natural market for Innovation LNG given geographic proximity. FEMSA (Fomento Económico Mexicano), the owner of OXXO, Coca-Cola FEMSA, and multiple bottling plants in Monterrey, is Mexico's largest beverage company and a potential anchor customer.

# Facility / Company Location Product Distance (mi) LNG Demand (GPD) Price $/gal Rationale
16Coca-Cola FEMSA Bottling — MonterreyNuevo LeónSoft Drinks2252,500$5.20Large thermal load; off-pipeline zone
17FEMSA Cerveza (HEINEKEN) — MonterreyNuevo LeónBeer2284,000$5.00Continuous brew/pasteurization
18PepsiCo Beverages — MonterreyNuevo LeónSoft Drinks2251,800$5.15Thermal process; pipeline constrained
19Grupo Lala — Monterrey DairyNuevo LeónDairy Products2302,200$5.25Pasteurization & drying ovens
20Texas Citrus Exchange — Mission, TXMission, TXCitrus Processing20800$5.10Drying, juicing; propane displacement
21H-E-B Distribution Center — EdinburgEdinburg, TXFood Distribution14500$4.90Refrigeration/backup power
22Rio Queen Citrus — Donna, TXDonna, TXCitrus Packing3300$5.00Local facility; adjacent to plant
23Pilgrim's Pride — WeslacoWeslaco, TXPoultry Processing151,500$5.10Steam rendering; propane user
24Associated Milk Producers — EdinburgEdinburg, TXDairy12600$5.00Drying/processing
Food & Beverage Premium: Breweries, dairies, and bottling operations pay premium prices ($5.00–$5.50/gal) for LNG because their alternative fuel (propane/LP gas) costs $4.50–$6.00/gal in northern Mexico, and natural gas pipeline access is unavailable or unreliable in many industrial zones. LNG delivered by ISO container provides regulatory-grade quality with documented BTU content suitable for food process standards.

Transportation Fleet Operators — LNG-Powered Trucks

LNG as a transportation fuel serves heavy-duty long-haul trucks. UPS, Amazon Logistics, and cross-border carriers operating on the I-69 corridor (Brownsville–Laredo–Houston) are natural candidates. The US deployed approximately 8,000 LNG-powered heavy-duty trucks as of 2024, concentrated on high-utilization, fixed-route corridors exactly like the South Texas–Houston trade lane. At $3.50–$4.00/GGE, LNG is significantly cheaper than diesel ($4.00–4.50/gallon equivalent) for high-mileage operators.

# Company Hub Location Fleet Type Distance (mi) Est. LNG Demand (GPD) Price $/GGE
25UPS — McAllen Distribution HubMcAllen, TXLNG Heavy Truck121,500$3.65
26Amazon Logistics — Pharr FulfillmentPharr, TXLNG Fleet (mixed)101,200$3.60
27J.B. Hunt Transport — Laredo HubLaredo, TXLong-haul LNG1503,500$3.55
28Werner Enterprises — Cross-borderLaredo, TXLNG Tractors1502,500$3.60
29Schneider National — South TX HubMcAllen, TXDedicated LNG Fleet122,000$3.58
30DINA (Mexico) — Monterrey FleetMonterrey, N.L.Cross-border LNG2254,000$4.00
LNG transportation fuel pricing is quoted in Gasoline Gallon Equivalent (GGE). 1 GGE of LNG ≈ 1.5 LNG gallons by volume. Demand figures represent potential contracted volumes pending fleet conversion programs. US fleet operators face a 3–5 year conversion timeline from diesel to LNG; Mexico-based carriers are earlier in the adoption curve.

Marine Bunkering — Gulf Coast Ports

Per the Argo Group LNG Bunker Feasibility Study (March 2026), Innovation LNG can compete as a supplemental marine bunker supplier to Port of Brownsville, Port of Corpus Christi, and ultimately Galveston/Houston via truck-to-ship delivery. Stabilis Solutions has secured a 10-year agreement for 50 million gallons/year at Galveston (delivery 2027), representing the primary competitive threat. Innovation LNG's competitive position is strongest in the Brownsville port corridor, where the proximity advantage ($0.43/gal logistics cost advantage over George West, TX) is decisive.

# Port / Operator Location Vessel Type Distance (mi) Bunker Demand GPD Price $/gal Availability
31Port of Brownsville — General CargoBrownsville, TXContainer / General608,000$2.00–2.50Near-term (2027)
32Carnival Corp. — Brownsville CruisePort of BrownsvilleCruise Ship (LNG)6050,000$2.25Stabilis contract; supplement only
33Port of Corpus Christi — TankersCorpus Christi, TXLNG Tanker / Chemical14512,000$2.00Medium-term (2028+)
34CMA CGM — Gulf Coast ContainersGalveston, TXContainer (LNG-fueled)33025,000$2.10Stabilis-contracted; possible supplement
35Tote Maritime — BrownsvilleBrownsville, TXContainer (LNG)6015,000$2.00–2.20Near-term
Marine Bunkering Economics Note: Marine bunkering prices are substantially lower than industrial or transportation LNG ($2.00–$2.50/gal vs. $4.50–$5.50/gal). However, volumes are very large. At Phase 2 capacity, supplying 25,000 GPD to marine customers alone generates $18.25M/year in gross revenue. The Feasibility Study concludes that marine bunkering is viable as a base-load volume strategy with margins of $0.43–$1.00/gal (truck delivery basis).

Aerospace — SpaceX, Blue Origin & High-Purity LNG

High-purity methane (≥99.5% CH₄) is a primary propellant for the SpaceX Raptor engine (Starship / Super Heavy) and Blue Origin BE-4 engine (New Glenn). Both facilities consume LNG in quantities that can represent 8–12% of a small-scale LNG producer's total volume at premium prices of $7.00–$10.00/gallon. Stabilis Solutions currently supplies ~40% of US rocket launch LNG volumes from its George West, TX facility (170 miles from Donna). Innovation LNG, located only 70 miles from Boca Chica, has a significant logistics advantage.

# Customer Location Application Distance (mi) Est. Demand (GPD) Price $/gal Purity Required
36SpaceX — Starbase, Boca ChicaCameron Co., TXRaptor Engine Propellant703,000–8,000$8.00–10.00≥99.5% CH₄
37Blue Origin — New Shepard/Glenn SupportVan Horn, TXBE-4 Engine Propellant4001,500–3,000$7.50–9.00≥99.0% CH₄
38Starbase Test Facilities (Raptor)Boca Chica, TXEngine Testing / R&D70500–1,500$8.50≥99.5% CH₄
39UTRGV Aerospace ResearchEdinburg, TXResearch / Lab1450–200$9.00≥99.9% CH₄
Aerospace Premium & Phase 2 Upgrade Requirement: High-purity methane production requires additional gas treating beyond the standard Cryobox Phase 1 configuration. The Phase 2 ANGLE LNG plant with its amine treating system and heavy fractionation column can produce high-purity methane as a product upgrade. Stabilis management reported aerospace LNG growing 40% year-over-year in 2024, projecting 25 million gallons/year industry-wide by 2029. At 5,000 GPD average, SpaceX Boca Chica alone represents $14.6M/year in revenue at $8/gallon.

The following master list consolidates all identified LNG target customers within the service territory of the Innovation LNG facility, Donna, TX. Customers are ranked by a combination of distance from facility, estimated contract volume, and strategic value. Total addressable contracted volume exceeds 225,000 GPD — greater than the planned Phase 2 capacity of 150,000 GPD — confirming sufficient market depth to fully absorb production.

# Customer / Facility Segment Location Mi Demand (GPD) $/gal Annual Revenue Status
1SpaceX Starbase (Boca Chica)AerospaceCameron Co., TX705,000$9.00$16.4MTarget — priority
2GE — Reynosa MaquiladoraIndustrialReynosa, Tam.153,000$4.90$5.4MTarget
3Emerson Electric — ReynosaIndustrialReynosa, Tam.151,800$5.00$3.3MTarget
4Parque Ind. Reynosa (Tenants)IndustrialReynosa, Tam.155,200$4.85$9.2MPriority anchor
5Rio Queen Citrus — Donna, TXFoodDonna, TX3300$5.00$0.5MAdjacent — quick win
6Texas Citrus Exchange — MissionFoodMission, TX20800$5.10$1.5MTarget
7Pilgrim's Pride — WeslacoFoodWeslaco, TX151,500$5.10$2.8MTarget
8H-E-B Distribution — EdinburgFoodEdinburg, TX14500$4.90$0.9MTarget
9UPS — McAllen HubTransportMcAllen, TX121,500$3.65$2.0MTarget
10Amazon Logistics — PharrTransportPharr, TX101,200$3.60$1.6MTarget
11Schneider National — McAllenTransportMcAllen, TX122,000$3.58$2.6MTarget
12Parque Ind. MatamorosIndustrialMatamoros, Tam.654,000$4.75$6.9MTarget
13Tote Maritime — BrownsvilleMarinePort Brownsville6015,000$2.10$11.5MHigh-priority
14Port of Brownsville — GeneralMarineBrownsville, TX608,000$2.25$6.6MTarget
15Vitro Glass — MonterreyIndustrialSan Nicolás, N.L.2359,000$4.35$14.3MHigh-priority
16Ternium Steel — MonterreyIndustrialSan Nicolás, N.L.23512,000$4.40$19.3MHighest priority
17CEMEX — MonterreyIndustrialMonterrey, N.L.2258,000$4.20$12.3MHigh-priority
18KIA Motors — PesqueríaIndustrialPesquería, N.L.2405,500$4.65$9.3MTarget
19Whirlpool — MonterreyIndustrialApodaca, N.L.2304,500$4.80$7.9MTarget
20John Deere — MonterreyIndustrialNuevo León2253,800$4.75$6.6MTarget
21Pratt & Whitney — MonterreyAerospaceNuevo León2352,200$5.50$4.4MTarget
22HEINEKEN/FEMSA CervezaFoodMonterrey, N.L.2284,000$5.00$7.3MTarget
23Coca-Cola FEMSA — MonterreyFoodNuevo León2252,500$5.20$4.7MTarget
24PepsiCo Beverages — MonterreyFoodNuevo León2251,800$5.15$3.4MTarget
25Grupo Lala — Monterrey DairyFoodNuevo León2302,200$5.25$4.2MTarget
26J.B. Hunt — LaredoTransportLaredo, TX1503,500$3.55$4.5MTarget
27Werner Enterprises — LaredoTransportLaredo, TX1502,500$3.60$3.3MTarget
28DINA Fleet — MonterreyTransportMonterrey, N.L.2254,000$4.00$5.8MTarget
29Énestas (Wholesale Partner)Virtual PipelineMexico (multi-site)Varies30,000$3.40$37.2MStrategic wholesale
30Interpuerto Park — MonterreyIndustrialApodaca, N.L.2387,500$4.60$12.6MTarget
31GIS — Saltillo CastingIndustrialSaltillo, Coah.2806,000$4.50$9.9MTarget
32Caterpillar — MonterreyIndustrialNuevo León2302,800$4.70$4.8MTarget
33Blue Origin — Van HornAerospaceVan Horn, TX4002,000$8.00$5.8MPhase 2 target
34Port Corpus Christi — TankersMarineCorpus Christi, TX14512,000$2.00$8.8MPhase 2+
35Associated Milk ProducersFoodEdinburg, TX12600$5.00$1.1MTarget
36Philips Electronics — N.L.IndustrialNuevo León2282,500$4.85$4.4MTarget
37Vitrocrisa (Libbey glass) — MTYIndustrialMonterrey, N.L.2305,000$4.50$8.2MTarget
38Hylsa Steel Products — MTYIndustrialNuevo León2328,500$4.35$13.5MTarget
39UTRGV Aerospace Research LabAerospaceEdinburg, TX14150$9.00$0.5MDevelopment
40Pilot Flying J — I-69 CorridorTransportEdinburg / Laredo15–1505,000$3.75$6.8MTarget — LNG station
41Garza Garcia Office Parks — MTYIndustrialNuevo León2281,500$4.75$2.6MTarget
42Starbase Test Support (Raptor)AerospaceBoca Chica, TX701,000$8.50$3.1MPriority
Note: Annual revenue estimates based on 365-day operation at stated demand volumes and contract prices. Demand figures are estimates based on industry benchmarks and publicly disclosed information. Actual contracted volumes may differ. All revenues are gross revenue before production costs, logistics, and operating expenses.
Production Cost (Phase 2)
$1.00
Per gallon all-in at gate
Logistics — Local (<75 mi)
$0.25–0.40
Per gallon delivered
Logistics — Mexico (75–250 mi)
$0.55–0.85
Inc. border crossing
Blended Gross Margin
$2.90–3.90
Per gallon by segment

Pricing by Market Segment — All-In Economics

Market Segment Avg. Contract Price ($/gal) Logistics Cost ($/gal) Net Margin ($/gal) % Gross Margin Volume (GPD) Annual Revenue Annual EBITDA
Aerospace (High-Purity)$9.00$0.35$7.6585%8,500$27.9M$23.7M
Food & Beverage$5.10$0.38$3.7273%13,700$25.5M$18.6M
Industrial Mexico (border)$4.85$0.65$3.2066%50,000$88.4M$58.4M
Industrial Mexico (Monterrey+)$4.50$0.82$2.6860%60,000$98.5M$59.1M
Transportation / Fleet$3.65$0.28$2.3765%14,700$19.6M$12.7M
Marine Bunkering$2.15$0.56$0.5927%33,000$25.9M$7.1M
Énestas Wholesale$3.40$0.70$1.7050%30,000$37.2M$18.6M
BLENDED TOTAL (Phase 2)$4.50$0.62$2.8864%150,000$219M$140M
GAAP Note: EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure. EBITDA shown represents Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization, calculated as gross revenue less production costs and logistics costs. Capital recovery and D&A not included in this table. Full GAAP income statement projections to be developed in the financial model.

Volume Mix & Revenue Contribution — Phase 2 Full Build

LNG Volume Mix by Market Segment (GPD)
150,000 GPD Phase 2 Capacity — Target Allocation
Industrial MX 40% Marine 22% Énestas 20% Transport 10% Food & Bev 9% Aerospace 6%
Revenue Contribution by Segment (Annual $M)
Higher-priced segments dominate revenue despite lower volumes
Delivered Cost Stack by Market Segment ($/gallon)
Production cost base ($1.00/gal) + logistics + margin = contract price

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) analysis is presented on a pre-tax, unlevered basis using a 10-year project life. Phase 1 analysis uses $16M CAPEX; Phase 2 adds $7M ($23M total). Cash flows are calculated from the modeled EBITDA contribution of each segment, netted against allocated CAPEX and working capital. The aerospace segment delivers the highest IRR due to premium pricing; marine bunkering delivers the lowest margin but supports base-load volume utilization critical to facility economics.

Aerospace (High-Purity)
45%
$9.00/gal avg. | 8,500 GPD
Food & Beverage
38%
$5.10/gal avg. | 13,700 GPD
Industrial Mexico (Border)
34%
$4.85/gal | 50,000 GPD
Industrial Mexico (Monterrey)
31%
$4.50/gal | 60,000 GPD
Énestas Wholesale
28%
$3.40/gal | 30,000 GPD
Marine Bunkering
18%
$2.15/gal | 33,000 GPD

Sensitivity Analysis — Blended IRR vs. Market Mix

Project IRR Under Different Market Mix Scenarios
Sensitivity to high-value vs. commodity volume weighting

10-Year Cumulative Cash Flow — Phase 1 & Phase 2

Cumulative Unlevered Free Cash Flow ($M) — Base Case
Phase 1: 20K GPD from Year 1 | Phase 2: +130K GPD from Year 2 | Production cost $1.00/gal | Blended price $4.50/gal
Phase 1 IRR (standalone)
45%
$16M CAPEX | 20K GPD | 5-year basis
Phase 1+2 IRR (blended)
38%
$23M total | 150K GPD | 10-year
Payback Period (Phase 1)
2.4 years
At 20K GPD, $4.50 blended price
10-Yr NPV (10% discount)
$118M
Phase 1+2, base case market mix
GAAP/SEC Note: IRR and NPV calculations are non-GAAP financial measures. IRR is calculated on a pre-tax, unlevered basis assuming straight-line depreciation of CAPEX over 15 years and working capital of 30 days of variable costs. The 10% discount rate represents an assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for project financing purposes. These are forward-looking projections subject to material uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially.

The market entry strategy is organized into four phases over 36 months from financial close (target Q2 2026). Phase 1 prioritizes near-border, high-price customers (Reynosa maquiladoras, local food processors, SpaceX) to maximize early cash flow from the 20,000 GPD Cryobox facility. Phase 2 targets Mexico virtual pipeline (Énestas partnership) and Monterrey industrial cluster. Phase 3 builds out marine bunkering from Port of Brownsville. Phase 4 executes full 300,000 GPD capacity at market saturation.

36-Month Market Development Gantt Chart

Activity 2026 2027 2028
Phase Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Phase 1 — Financial Close & Construction (20K GPD)
Financial Close & Financing 
Site Preparation & Permitting  
Cryobox Equipment Procurement  
Installation & Commissioning  
Phase 1 Market Entry — Near-Border & Aerospace
LOI/Contracts — Reynosa Industrial  
First Deliveries — Reynosa  
SpaceX — LOI & Qualification   
SpaceX — First LNG Deliveries  
Food & Bev Contracts — RGV   
Phase 2 — MR Plant & Mexico Expansion (150K GPD)
Phase 2 FEED & Engineering  
MR Plant Procurement  
MR Plant Construction & Install   
Énestas Partnership — Negotiate   
Énestas — First Wholesale Delivery   
Monterrey Industrial — Contracts   
Monterrey — Regular Deliveries   
Phase 3 — Marine Bunkering & Full Ramp
Port Brownsville — LNG Facility   
Marine Bunkering — 1st Operations    
Blue Origin — Supply Agreement   
  Construction/Engineering
  Sales/Contract Development
  Negotiations/LOIs
  Phase 2 Expansion
Risk FactorCategoryProbabilityImpactMitigation
Stabilis/GLBP competition intensifiesMarketMediumHighPrice advantage from proximity; differentiate on quality and reliability for aerospace
Mexico cross-border permitting delaysRegulatoryMediumMediumEngage SENER/CRE early; use Énestas as import permit holder for initial volumes
Henry Hub gas price spikeFeedstockLowHighLong-term gas supply contract at fixed or capped price; $3.50–4.00/gal LNG price maintains margin at $5.00/MMBTU gas
SpaceX launch schedule changesMarketMediumLowDiversified customer base; aerospace is 6% of volume — manageable
Mexico political risk (AMLO successor policy)CountryLowHighStructure Mexico contracts via US-domiciled SPV; use USD-denominated contracts with CFE-rated counterparties
ISO container fleet availabilityLogisticsLowMediumPhase 1 storage containers double as delivery units; procure additional fleet as volume grows
Cryobox technology/equipment riskTechnicalLowLowN+1 redundancy; Cryobox has 10+ years US operating history; vendor-led maintenance contract
Food/bev customer fuel switchingMarketLowLowLNG is 20–30% cheaper than propane at $5.00/gal vs. $6.00/gal propane equivalent in Mexico
SEC Disclosure Requirement: This study contains forward-looking statements. Risk factors identified above represent the material risks to projected financial performance and should be disclosed in any offering memorandum or SEC filing pursuant to Regulation S-K Item 503. Investors should review the full risk factors section in conjunction with audited financial statements prepared in accordance with US GAAP.

Conclusions & Recommendations

Market Demand Validation

This study identifies 225,000+ GPD of addressable LNG demand within Innovation LNG's service territory — 50% greater than the planned 150,000 GPD Phase 2 capacity. The market is undersupplied. Stabilis's George West facility (170 miles from Donna) cannot economically serve the Reynosa/Matamoros border corridor at the same cost as a Donna-based facility. The Monterrey industrial complex remains heavily dependent on propane and LPG at premium costs, representing a natural conversion opportunity.

Priority Recommendations

  1. Secure SpaceX LOI immediately — 70-mile proximity; 45% IRR; $14M/yr at 5K GPD
  2. Contract Reynosa Park (3–5 tenants) — Phase 1 base load anchor
  3. Initiate Énestas partnership discussions — 30,000 GPD wholesale off-take
  4. File CRE export permit for Mexico LNG — parallel with construction
  5. Target HEINEKEN/FEMSA and Vitro Glass — high-volume, high-price anchors
  6. Initiate marine bunkering discussion — Port of Brownsville as Phase 3
Study Conclusion
The Innovation LNG facility at Donna, Texas is economically viable across all six target market segments. With a blended IRR of 28–45% and a total addressable market exceeding facility capacity, the primary risk is execution speed — not market demand. The facility's geographic position relative to Reynosa, SpaceX Boca Chica, and the Monterrey industrial complex represents a structural competitive advantage over existing South Texas LNG producers.
Argo Group LLC | Innovation LNG Market Analysis | March 2026 | Strictly Confidential
Argo Group LLC